Who can win the candidates 2026 Tournament

 Who can  win the candidates 2026 Tournament

After Round 11,

• Sindarov: 8.5
• Giri: 6.5   Gap = 2 points

With only 3 rounds left, this is extremely steep.

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Target for Giri

To win outright, Giri likely needs:

• Final score approx 9.5–10

That means:
 Giri must score at least 2.5 / 3 or 3 / 3

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Round-by-Round Requirements

Round 12 (MUST WIN)

Giri:

• Should Win  Wei Yi (no compromise)

Sindarov:

• Ideally:  Lose to  Hikaru Nakamura
• Acceptable: Draw (but still tough)

If Giri draws -> tournament is basically over.

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 Round 13 (CRITICAL – often head-to-head)

BEST CASE:

• Giri vs Sindarov → Giri must:
  • Win head-to-head

 This swings:

• Giri +1
• Sindarov 0
  → 2-point swing in one game

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 Round 14 (FINAL ROUND – ALL OR NOTHING)

Scenario A (Ideal comeback path)

• Giri: 2/2 so far
• Sindarov dropped points

Now:

• Giri: Win final round
• Sindarov: Draw or lose

Giri can tie or overtake

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Scenario B (Tie situation)

If both reach same score:

• Goes to tiebreaks
• Giri must hope his tiebreak > Sindarov

Not guaranteed

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What Sindarov Needs (much easier)

For Javokhir Sindarov:

• Just 1.5 / 3 (e.g., 3 draws)
  Very likely enough to win

OR

• Even 1 win out of 3 → almost certain victory

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 Reality Check

For Anish Giri to win:

He needs ALL of this:

1. Score 2.5–3/3
2.  Beat Sindarov (if they meet)
3.  Sindarov scores ≤ 1/3
4.  Possibly win tiebreaks

That’s a perfect storm scenario

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 Summary

• Giri’s path = WIN-WIN-WIN + Sindarov collapse
• Sindarov’s path = just don’t lose control

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Final Insight

If Sindarov makes even 2 draws,
Giri’s chances drop to near zero.